AI News Monitor

As artificial intelligence continues to capture global attention, its economic effects remain uncertain, according to Nobel-winning economist Daron Acemoglu. While massive investments are pouring into AI, its long-term productivity gains and job market effects are still being debated.

Acemoglu, an Institute Professor at MIT, has extensively studied the intersection of technology and economics. His recent research suggests that AI’s impact on U.S. GDP will be modest—potentially increasing it by only 1.1 to 1.6 percent over the next decade, with a minimal annual productivity gain. These figures challenge industry claims that AI will dramatically boost economic growth.

One of Acemoglu’s primary concerns is whether AI will enhance worker productivity or replace human labor. He argues that the current trajectory leans too heavily toward automation rather than empowering workers with new capabilities. He points to historical parallels, such as the Industrial Revolution, where workers only benefitted after decades of social struggle.

“Wages are unlikely to rise when workers cannot push for their share of productivity growth,” Acemoglu and Johnson write in the paper. “Today, artificial intelligence may boost average productivity, but it also may replace many workers while degrading job quality for those who remain employed. … The impact of automation on workers today is more complex than an automatic linkage from higher productivity to better wages.”

Acemoglu also raises caution about the unchecked speed of AI adoption. In his research, he suggests that a more measured approach—allowing time to assess risks and benefits—could lead to better long-term outcomes. He warns against market hype, driven by venture capitalists and AI enthusiasts, which may be accelerating adoption without clear economic benefits.

As governments and industries grapple with AI’s potential, Acemoglu’s insights provide a critical perspective: AI’s impact will depend not just on its capabilities, but on how society chooses to integrate it into the workforce.